To ask the Minister of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs for his assessment of the threats posed to Northern Ireland’s coastal areas by climate change.

Climate change has been identified as one of the main pressures affecting the UK coastal environments. In the coming decades it is anticipated that potential economic, societal and environmental risks caused by climate change on coastal areas will significantly increase.

The Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership (MCCIP) 2020 Report Card made future projections of sea level rise around the UK. For Belfast, the central estimate sea level projection for the year 2100 ranges from 0.26 – 0.58 metres, depending on the emissions scenario.

Sea levels along the Northern Irish coast are predicted to rise, as are the frequency and intensity of extreme storm events. In combination these impacts will have a direct physical impact on our coastal areas, allowing higher energy waves to reach our coastline, with greater potential for coastal erosion and increased risk of flooding. The frequency and magnitude of coastal change in Northern Ireland will undoubtedly be greater in the future than in the recent past or present and coastal assets will be subjected to enhanced rates of erosion, inundation and weathering or decay.

To better understand the threats, my Department is progressing actions identified in the Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) 2017 and the subsequent Northern Ireland Climate Change Adaptation Programme 2019-24. Research has been commissioned from the Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute (AFBI) to assess the impacts of future climate change scenarios on the coastal habitats of Northern Ireland. This will include identification of the risks to coastal assets, such as Marine Protected Areas, infrastructure and heritage. By integrating the best available evidence this project will identify practical ways to develop adaptation measures to accommodate a range of climate change scenarios.

My officials are contributing to the development of the third Climate Change Risk Assessment evidence report which is due to be published in summer 2021; this will contain further projections for sea level rise and impact at the coast.